Estadisticas del Oro para el 3T2012 / Gold statistics for 3Q2012 from rgonlau

Estadisticas Oro 3T / 3Q Statistics for Gold

Basic data from the World Gold Council for Q3 2012.
Estadisticas basicas del Consejo Mundial del oro para el 3T del 2012.

http://www.slideshare.net/rgonlau/gold-3q2012

Oro / Gold : Grafica de mediano plazo / Medium term graph

Oro / Gold : 1650 o/or 1800 ?

Grafico:Dow/Oro // Dow/Gold Chart

Via : The Big Picture

GLD : Oro hacia 1950 / Gold towards 1950

Estimación de Corto Plazo ( 1 a 30 días ) : El cierre de este viernes 12-Oct en 1759 toco la linea de tendencia que se ha venido formando desde mediados de Sep. ; esta linea puede excederse hasta 1730, este nivel representa una penetración de 1.87% lo que se considera aceptable para un periodo de corto plazo ( máxima penetración de 3% en corto plazo es recomendada ) y esta en linea con el soporte de mediano plazo en 1750-1730. Desde 1730 debemos ver un rebote hacia 1800 -1802 para ahí decidir si rompera a la alza o formara un techo doble  . Suerte !

 

Estimación de Medio Plazo ( 1- 3 meses ): El oro se encuentra en el proceso de formacion de un banderín, un banderín es un patron de continuidad, lo que indica que el oro debería continuar fortaleciéndose en las próxima semanas. Si esto se confirma el soporte de 1750-1730 se debe respetar. Una segunda confirmación se dará al cerrar una semana por encima del nivel de 1802 que es la máxima anterior que se dio en Mar-2012. Al romperse este nivel,  el rango de 1942-1950 sera el siguiente objetivo. 1942 es la máxima histórica del oro que se dio en Sep-2011 y 1950 es el resultado de la medida del banderín. Suerte !

 

Short term view (1-30 days) : Last Friday Oct-12 close at 1759 did touch the short term trendline, this line can be penetrated down to 1730, which represents a 1.87% penetration ( this is acceptable for a short term period which allows up to 3% penetration ) ; 1730 is also the medium term support range of 1750-1730. At 1730 we should see a rebound that should take price to 1800-1802, that is a key decision point, either it breaks up or turns down to form a double top. Good Luck.

 

Medium Term ( 1-3- months ) view : We observe a pennant formation, which is a continutity patterns, this means gold may continue to the upside when the pennant and the 1802 level are exceeded. When 1802 is exceeded the target range will be 1942-1950 .The 1750-1730 support level should hold. Good Luck !

Speculators increase net long position in Gold

GOLD – The Simple Facts. PIMCO Viewpoints

By Nicholas J. Johnson, Mihir P. Worah, October 2012

Article Introduction

• For more than a millennium, gold has broadly managed to maintain its real value, even as various currency regimes have come and gone.
• The supply of gold is constrained, and we see demand increasing consistent with global economic growth on a per capita basis.
• Given current valuations and central bank policies, we believe investors should consider including gold and other precious metals in a diversified investment portfolio.

 

Article Main Body

When it comes to investing in gold, investors often see the world in black and white. Some people have a deep, almost religious conviction that gold is a useless, barbarous relic with no yield; it’s an asset no rational investor would ever want. Others love it, seeing it as the only asset that can offer protection from the coming financial catastrophe, which is always just around the corner.

Our views are more nuanced and, we believe, provide a balanced framework for assessing value. Our bottom line: given current valuations and central bank policies, we see gold as a compelling inflation hedge and store of value that is potentially superior to fiat currencies.

We believe investors should consider allocating gold and other precious metals to a diversified investment portfolio. The supply of gold is constrained, and we see demand increasing consistent with global economic growth on a per capita basis. Regarding inflation in particular, we feel that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin a third round of quantitative easing makes gold even more attractive.

We see the Fed’s actions in the wake of the financial crisis as a paradigm shift whereby the Fed is attempting to ease financial conditions and encourage risk-taking by increasing inflation expectations. Its policies will likely result in continuous negative real interest rates because nominal rates will be fixed at close to 0% for the foreseeable future.

To be sure, gold isn’t the only asset with the potential to hold its value in inflationary times. For U.S. investors, at least, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offer an explicit inflation hedge. What’s more, TIPS tend to be less volatile than gold and, if held to maturity, are guaranteed to receive their principal back – barring a U.S. government default (which we see as incredibly improbable). Still, history shows that gold is highly correlated to inflation and has unique supply and demand characteristics that potentially lead to attractive valuations.

A unique store of value
For more than a millennium, gold has served as a store of value and a medium of exchange. It has broadly managed to maintain its real value, even as various currency regimes have come and gone. The reason is that the supply of gold is not at the whim of any governmental power; it is fundamentally supply constrained. Total outstanding above-ground gold stocks – the amount that has been extracted over the past few millennia – are roughly 155,000 metric tons. Each year mines supply roughly 2,600 additional metric tons, or 1.7% of the outstanding total. This is why gold can be thought of as the currency without a printing press.

The downside of gold is that it generates no interest. One ounce of gold today will still be only one ounce next year and the year after that. Because of this, gold is sometimes referred to as a non-productive financial asset, but we feel this characterization is misleading. Rather, we believe gold should not be thought of as a substitute for equities or corporate bonds. These have equity or default risk and therefore convey risk premiums.

Instead, gold should be thought of as a currency, one which pays no interest. Dollars, euro, yen and other currencies can be deposited to receive interest, and this rate of interest is meant to compensate for the decline in the value of paper currencies via inflation. Gold, in contrast, maintains its real value over time so no interest is necessary.

Today, the forward-looking return on holding U.S. dollars, and most other major currencies, has been artificially lowered by the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates pegged at near zero for the next few years; real yields on U.S. government bonds are negative out to 20 years. In such a world, we believe the desire and willingness of investors to hold gold relative to other currencies increases dramatically, creating the potential for continued price appreciation.

The real price of gold
Of course, investors must also consider valuation, especially since some believe gold is overpriced. Figure 1 shows the inflation-adjusted value of gold since 1970. There is no doubt that gold prices, which averaged $1,630 in August, are high. However, in inflation-adjusted terms, gold is 12% below its 1980 peak. Inflation in 1980 hit 15% year-over-year, and inflation today is running much lower so some may question the validity of comparisons to 1980. While we believe that inflation over the next several years is likely to be higher, on average, than it has been over the past 20 years and that the tail risks are for much higher inflation, this speaks more to the outlook for the nominal price of gold.

The price of gold in real or inflation-adjusted terms is less affected by the rate of inflation and more impacted by the level of real interest rates because as discussed previously, it is the real interest rate that drives the relative attractiveness of holding gold relative to other currencies. With real interest rates negative on average for the next 20 years, it is of little surprise that gold is trading near its all-time inflation-adjusted high.

Even the inflation-adjusted value of gold doesn’t tell the whole story, however. Thanks to productivity gains and economic growth, per capita GDP is significantly higher today than 30 years ago. Thus, the average person today has more wealth and, all else being equal, can afford to pay relatively more for gold.

To Chinese, gold has never seemed less expensive

Figure 2 shows the ratio of gold prices to per capita GDP in the U.S. and China. In dollar terms, gold is still 34% below its 1980 peak, as U.S. per capita GDP is higher today. Furthermore, this is a relatively U.S. centric view, and considering that China represents the largest source of global gold demand, we believe investors take an overly myopic view at their peril. Chinese per capita GDP has grown at an 18% annualized rate for the past 10 years, compared with just 3% per year in the U.S. Thus, while gold might seem quite expensive to those of us in developed economies, its price seems much less expensive to those in faster-growing emerging economies like China.

Another way to think about the relative value of gold is to consider what a return to the gold standard might look like. In other words, what if the entire world’s gold were used to back the global supply of fiat currency? Globally there are roughly $12.5 trillion in physical and electronic currency reserves. Given that there are 155,000 metric tons of gold above ground, this equals an approximate price of $2,500 per ounce if all of the world’s reserves were to be backed by the entire stock of above-ground physical gold.

Not really so pricey
These points lead us to believe that gold valuations are not as stretched as a naïve look at its nominal price might suggest. Central banks globally are seeking to depreciate their currencies in a beggar-thy-neighbor attempt to stimulate their domestic economies (the Swiss National Bank is a prime example). Therefore, we believe investors should consider owning gold, precious metals and other assets that store value as long as central banks continue to print and maintain negative real interest rates.

GLD Oro velas indicanindecision / Gold candles shows indecision

Dos semanas consecutivas cerrando con velas tipo Doji, donde el precio de apertura y cierre son casi el mismo, clara indecision de parte de los mercados. Suerte !

We have now two consecutive weeks with the price of gold closing with a Doji candlestick formation, both the opening and closing prices are almost the same, clearly showing markte indecision. Good Luck !

Deutsche Bank: Gold price to hit $1,900 by end of October

 

A bullish thesis for gold was recently presented by Deutsche Bank's commodity analysts. Gold has responded as expected to the latest round of monetary expansion by the Fed. The precious metal did not rally with Operation Twist because the program did not involve increasing the monetary base - and was therefore deemed to be less inflationary.

Source: DB

If gold continues to perform (purely based on inflation fears) as it did during the previous balance sheet expansions by the Fed, DB projects gold prices hitting $1,900/oz by the end of October.

Hat tip : Soberlook.com

10 Goldminers that pay a dividend

After the announcement of QE3, investors everywhere began flocking to gold. The precious metal has a number of appealing features, but its most alluring at the moment is its ability to hedge against a flailing dollar. With Bernanke and company slated to print $40 billion per month for an unknown duration, it seems that the greenback is due for a slump. Aside from the metal itself, many investors are also fond of gold equities, as they offer indirect exposure to the commodity, while allowing for advantages like a dividend. Below, we outline 10 gold miners that are currently paying a dividend to consider for your portfolio [for more gold news subscribe to our free newsletter].

1. Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)
   • Dividend Yield: 3.42%
   • Market Cap: $9.4 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 20%
   • Beta: 0.71
   Gold Fields is a South African firm that has proven resources of approximately 217 million ounces of the yellow metal. The stock trades nearly 4 million times each day and is an investor favorite around the world. Unfortunately, the handsome dividend has not been enough to support the stock as it has lost more than 27% in the trailing year as global gold miners have struggled.
2. Newmont Mining (NEM)
   • Dividend Yield: 2.46%
   • Market Cap: $28.1 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 293%
   • Beta: 0.12
   Newmont is one of the biggest names in gold mining as it holds reserves of more than 98 million ounces with over 31,000 square miles of land. The company had been struggling for most of the past year, but turned it on in September as bullishness for gold was renewed. It should be noted that the firm has a current P/E ratio of 121, which may scare off some investors who feel it to be overvalued [see also Three Reasons Why Gold Is Overvalued].
3. Barrick Gold (ABX)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.90%
   • Market Cap: $41.9 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 15%
   • Beta: 0.28
   Another big name in the gold world, Barrick’s shares trade nearly 8.5 million times each day. The company has a current P/E ratio of 10.2 with EPS of 4.1, suggesting it may be undervalued. Like Newmont, ABX was struggling until the past few weeks, where it has begun to pick up steam performance-wise.
4. IAMGOLD Corp. (IAG) ( Our favourite )
   • Dividend Yield: 1.60%
   • Market Cap: $5.9 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 27%
   • Beta: 0.65
   This Canadian exploration firm searches for gold among other coveted assets, giving it a nice appeal among investors. Though the company has been struggling as of late, investors will be happy to see that the firm is not funded by debt and keeps a sizable amount of cash on hand.
5. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.57%
   • Market Cap: $11.6 billion
   • Payout Ratio: n/a
   • Beta: 0.61
   Trading more than 9 million times per day, Kinross has an established place in the investing world. Unfortunately, its underlying financials suggest a struggle as of late, with EPS of -2 and an abysmal quarterly growth rate of -37% (yoy). This may be a better stock to keep an eye on as opposed to pulling the trigger right away [see also Marc Faber Warns: Store Your Gold Overseas].
6. Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.56%
   • Market Cap: $8.8 billion
   • Payout Ratio: n/a
   • Beta: -0.03
   Another firm that has had trouble as of late, only to jump up over the past few months. For the time being, AEM’s financials look are a bit shaky, with an EPS of -3.3 and a negative ROE and ROA. But quarterly earnings growth has been solid, making this a good stock to keep an eye on as it looks to turn a corner in the coming months.
7. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.35%
   • Market Cap: $1.4 trillion
   • Payout Ratio: 22%
   • Beta: 0.46
   Anglo Ashanti was able to snag gold’s element symbol as their ticker and they were also able to snag a massive market cap of more $1 trillion. Of the stocks on this list, AU may be one of the most volatile, as its price has vaulted back and forth in recent weeks. Those wishing to buy into this firm will need to have a strong stomach as AU tends to move heavily in spite of its low beta.
8. Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.20%
   • Market Cap: $10.0 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 17%
   • Beta: 0.48
   BVN is based in Lima, Peru and is primarily engaged in the exploration and mining of gold and silver. Their current cash position nearly triples that of their debt, but their earnings growth has been dragging as of late [see also How to Build a GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio].
9. GoldCorp (GG)
   • Dividend Yield: 1.17%
   • Market Cap: $37.6 billion
   • Payout Ratio: 31%
   • Beta: 0.47
   Yet another bellwether gold miner, GG trades hands more than 5 million times each day. The Canadian firm operates mines in Mexico and Argentina along with its home country. Though quarterly earnings growth has been dragging, GG has been able to significantly pick things up in the last few weeks as far as performance is concerned.
10. Yamana Gold (AUY)
    • Dividend Yield: 1.17%
    • Market Cap: $14.2 billion
    • Payout Ratio: 36%
    • Beta: 0.57
    Yamana has set itself apart by gaining 12.7% in the trailing year where most of its competitors have actually seen their stock prices shrink. Like so many others on this list, AUY’s quarterly growth numbers have been weak, but its performance may draw in those who have been frustrated by the losses suffered by some of the more prominent names in the industry.

Source : Commodity HQ

GLD : Oro, mision cumplida. Y ahora 1800 o 1640 ? / Gold target achieved, what's next 1800 or 1640 ?

Mencionamos aquí el 5 de Sep que favoreciamos la fortaleza del Oro hasta alcanzar 1750, bueno pues misión cumplida.  Ahora , hacia adelante , si 1750 es excedido a la baja entonces 1640 sera el siguiente objetivo de corto plazo; mientras 1750 sea respetado 1800 es una posibilidad. Suerte !

We mentioned here on Sep-5 that we favour the continuing strengh of gold and that 1750 was a reacheable target : Mission accomplished . Going forward as long as 1750 stands as a support 1800 is a possibility, otherwise breaking 1750 to the downside will put 1640 in play. Good Luck ! 

GLD : Oro ha alcanzado 1er objetivo, continuara hacia 1750? / Gold has reached 1st target, will it reach 1750?

Como lo comentamos aquí en Ago-27 esperábamos que ante el rompimiento de la formacion de triángulo el oro alcanzara 1700, este objetivo ya se ha cumplido. También como lo mencionamos esperamos que alrededor de 1700 tengamos un periodo de consolidación antes de decidir la siguiente dirección, que continuamos favoreciendo hacia la alza con objetivo de 1750. Suerte !

We mentioned here on Aug-27 that after breaking the triangle formation to the upside, 1700 was the next target for gold; well, the target has been reached and now, as also mentioned that day, we expect some consolidation at around 1700 before the next leg starts. We still favour the upside with a target of 1750. Good Luck !

GLD : Oro rumbo a 1750? / Gold towards 1750?

Mencionamos aquí en Ago-20 la posibilidad de que el oro rompiera a la alza la formacion de triángulo que ha venido formado desde Mayo. El triángulo ha sido excedido a la alza poniendo como objetivo 1700, con la posibilidad de continuar hacia 1720, aquí podremos ver un periodo de consolidación que tiene la posibilidad de continuar hacia 1750-1770. Para ver un cambio de dirección tendríamos que ver un rompimiento convincente de 1640 a la baja. Suerte !

We mentioned here on Aug-20 the possibility for gold to break the triangle formation that has been put in place since May. We are on the 5th consecutive up/consolidation day. Next targets are 1700 and then 1720, we may see a consolidation in this area before continuing to reach 1750-1770. In order to see a change of trend, we will like to see a break of 1640 to the downside. Good Luck !

Soros Unloads All Major Financial Bank Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold

 In a harbinger of what may be coming our way in the Fall of 2012, billionaire financier George Soros has sold all of his equity positions in major financial stocks according to a 13-F report filed with the SEC for the quarter ending June 30, 2012.

Soros, who manages funds through various accounts in the US and the Cayman Islands, has reportedly unloaded over one million shares of stock in financial companies and banks that include Citigroup (NYSE:C) 420,000 shares, JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) 701,400 shares and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) 120,000 shares. The total value of the stock sales amounts to nearly $50 million.

What’s equally as interesting as his sale of major financials is where Soros has shifted his money. At the same time he was selling bank stocks, he was acquiring  some 884,000 shares (approx. $130 million) of Gold via the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD).

GLD:Estacionalidad del Oro, en Ago. toca fondo / Gold seasonality , Aug. is bottom month

Después de tocar fondo en el mes de Agosto, el precio del oro inicia una recuperación que se extiende hasta el mes de Marzo, para iniciar nuevamente su descenso en Abril de cada año.

After reaching the bottom during the month of August, gold's price start to recover until reaching its peak in March, to re-start its decline in April of every year.

GLD:Oro en 1750 o 1450, que sera? / Gold at 1750 or 1450, what will it be?

La grafica se explica por si sola: desde Mayo ha venido formando un triangulo que parece puede romper a la alza poniendo 1750 como objetivo. Sin embargo, las probabilidades de que rompe hacia abajo y ponga en juego 1450 tambien son muy altas. Aun hay que esperar. Suerte !.

The graph speaks by itself : a triangle formation started in May, looks like it may break to the upside targeting 1750; but is still to early, there is a chance that we see gold price going down targeting 1450. We recommend to wait and see. Good Luck !

La escasez de lluvias en India afectan precio del Oro.

August 8, 2012, 12:03 a.m. ET

La escasez de lluvias opaca el oro en India

The Wall Street Journal

Por TATYANA SHUMSKY en Nueva York y BIMAN MUKHERJI en Nueva Delhi

Una débil temporada de lluvias monzónicas ha obligado a los agricultores de India a posponer sus compras de oro.

Sin las fuertes precipitaciones que normalmente empiezan en junio, las cosechas se están arruinando, lo que deja a los campesinos sin dinero para darse el lujo de comprar las joyas de oro que juegan un papel central en las bodas indias.

Como el mayor comprador e importador de oro del mundo, India contribuye a fijar la dirección de sus precios. La demanda proviene principalmente de las zonas rurales, hogar de cientos de millones de campesinos que usualmente llevan la carga de adornar a sus hijas, sobrinas y hermanas con gruesos collares, brazaletes y aretes de oro.

La Asociación de Lingotes de Bombay, el principal grupo aurífero de India, estima que las importaciones de oro del país en el segundo trimestre se desplomaron 60%, a 128 toneladas, frente al mismo período del año pasado debido en gran parte a los débiles monzones registrados hasta el momento. Antes del inicio de la temporada de lluvias, la asociación pronosticaba una caída de alrededor de 20% en las importaciones de oro en 2012, debido al debilitamiento de la rupia, lo que encarece el oro para los compradores indios, y al cierre generalizado de joyerías hace unos meses en protesta a nuevos impuestos. Ahora, el grupo prevé un descenso cercano a 40%.

Los inversionistas en oro suelen seguir de cerca el clima en India, y muchos creen que la débil temporada pluvial socavará aún más los precios del metal precioso, que ya han bajado casi 10% desde sus máximos de 2012 a fines de febrero. El martes, los futuros del oro cerraron en cerca de US$1.610 la onza.

Azhar Sheikh Azhar, un agricultor de 32 años con más de tres hectáreas de tierras en Dahegaon Village, en India, canceló sus planes de una suntuosa boda y regalos de joyas para su sobrina.

"¿De dónde vamos a sacar dinero para eso si tenemos que preocuparnos por la próxima comida para la familia?", se pregunta Azhar.

Michael Shaoul, presidente de la junta directiva de Marketfield Asset Management LLC, una asesora de fondos de inversión con más de US$2.500 millones bajo gestión, apostó hace poco a que el precio del oro bajaría conforme la proyección para las cosechas empeoraba.

Aun así, otros factores podrían rápidamente abrumar el mercado del oro y elevar los precios. Las medidas decisivas de los bancos centrales para imprimir dinero con el fin de estimular la economía probablemente elevarán el precio del oro, dice James Dailey, gestor principal de portafolio de TEAM Asset Strategy Fund. Cualquier estímulo monetario podría debilitar el dólar o el euro, o ambos, y obligar a los inversionistas a buscar refugio en el metal dorado.

"La demanda marginal de inversionistas en el mundo desarrollado arrollaría cualquier cosa que suceda a nivel interno en India", afirma.

Además, algunos inversionistas señalan que el papel dominante de India en el mercado aurífero ha estado menguando en los últimos años a medida que sus importaciones del metal precioso se desaceleran.

"Creo que este año China tiene la batuta", asevera Ani Markova, gestora de US$600 millones en AGF Precious Metals Fund, de los cuales 13% está destinado a oro y plata.

Las lluvias podrían reavivarse en agosto, pero la ausencia de agua y la falta de siembra son suficientes para socavar la producción agrícola de esta temporada y reducir la economía general del país en cerca de 0,6%, según economistas de UBS.

Copyright 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

GLD : Oro Rompe tirangulo objetivo 1651 / Gold breaks triangle, target 1651

Mencionabamos aqui el 23-Julio que favoreciamos el movimiento del oro a la baja, pues en el corto plazo el mercado ha decidido romper la formacion de triangulo a la alza que ahora pone como objetivo 1651. Suerte !.

We mentioned here on Jul-23 that we expected gold price to weaken. After breaking a short term triangle formation , price will tend to go up and target 1651. Good Luck!.

GLD : Oro 1600 y 1540 son los niveles clave / 1600 and 1540 key levels

1600 es el nivel clave para definir la siguiente tendencia del oro. por 5ta semana consecutiva se mantiene en el rango de 1540-1600. Hoy cerro en 1576, y al igual que la plata favorecemos la tendencia a la baja, con un immediato objetivo de 1565 y luego 1540, ahi veremos si puede con este soporte.Suerte !.

1600 is the level to watch. For 5 weeks gold price has stayed in the range of 1540-1600. Similar to silver we favour lower prices, with an immediate target of 1565 and then 1540, there we will see if this support can hold. Good Luck!.