29 nov. 2012

JPMorgan's forecast for 2013 US Housing shadow inventory

The housing shadow inventory is in part being fed by re-defaults on modified mortgages.
The recent spike in re-defaults  may have been caused by the release of iPhone5 (impulsive borrowers would forgo mortgage payments to buy a new phone). That's a frightening thought (and an amazing achievement for Apple).

The larger picture however points to a decline in shadow inventory in 2013. JPMorgan anticipates 650K of re-defaults (could be worse if Apple comes up with a new popular product) and 1.2 million of new delinquencies. At the same time existing delinquencies are working their way through.
The forecast is a net 380K reduction.

Via Soberlook .
Link to original : http://soberlook.com/2012/11/jpmorgans-forecast-for-2013-shadow.html