2 oct. 2012

Pesimismo favorece alza en mercados / Sell side favours more upside

El estratega de capitales y  de Merrill Lynch, Savita Subramanian, toma nota de que Wall Street es todavía excesivamente pesimista, y que éste sigue siendo un indicador contrario fiable:

El indicador Sell Side se basa en la asignación de capital promedio recomendado por los estrategas de Wall Street el último día hábil de cada mes. Hemos encontrado que el consenso de asignaciones al mercado accionario de Wall Street ha sido históricamente un indicador contrario confiable. En otras palabras, ha sido históricamente una señal alcista cuando Wall Street estaba extremadamente bajista, y viceversa.


Merrill Lynch’s Equity & Quant Strategist, Savita Subramanian, notes that Wall Street is still excessively bearish, and that this remains a reliable contrarian indicator:

The Sell Side Indicator is based on the average recommended equity allocation of Wall Street strategists as of the last business day of each month. We have found that Wall Street’s consensus equity allocation has historically been a reliable contrary indicator. In other words, it has historically been a bullish signal when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa.

Source : Merril Lych
Hat Tip : The Big Picture.