El foco de los mercados en las próximos dias estará centrado en los bancos centrales de Europa y los EE.UU.. El presidente de la Reserva Federal (Fed), Ben Bernanke, hará su discurso anual en Jackson Hole este viernes, hay expectativas muy altas de un anuncio de estímulo adicional (QE 3), especialmente por el tono de las minutas de la Fed de la semana pasada. Estas expectativas de una flexibilización cuantitativa (QE) adicional pueden decepcionar los mercados ya que los datos económicos estables/positivos de la economía de Estados Unidos harán más difícil la justificación de un QE adicional. Lo que si se espera es una confirmación de parte de Bernanke de la intención de la Fed de mantener las tasa de interés en sus bajos niveles actuales hasta 2015.
Mientras tanto, los datos económicos de Europa continúan debilitándose como consecuencia del precio que las economías están pagados por el “camino” de la austeridad que han decidido tomar para resolver la crisis de la deuda. Incluso Alemania esta siendo afectada y recientemente el Índice IFO de agosto mostro l por cuarto mes consecutivo su nivel más bajo desde marzo de 2010.Es probable que el BCE, que ya se está preparando un programa de compra de bonos y la revisión de su marco de garantía para estabilizar los mercados de deuda de la zona euro, también este contemplando un programa de QE; la inflación ha dejado de ser un obstáculo para la implementación de una política monetarias mas relajada, la que podría ser en forma de recortes de tasas o no-esterilización de las compras de bonos.
Creemos que los mercados ya han descontado un mayor estímulo de la Reserva Federal y compras importantes de bonos por parte del BCE, la falta de estímulos adicionales de parte de la Fed o el BCE va a defraudar a los mercados.
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The focus of markets over the coming days will be firmly on the central banks of Europe and the US. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), Ben Bernanke, is due to make his annual Jackson Hole speech on Friday, with expectations of the announcement of further stimulus heightened by the dovish Fed minutes released last week.These expectations for further quantitative easing (QE) may be disappointed as firmer US data may make further QE difficult to justify. At the very least, though, Chairman Bernanke is likely to confirm the Fed’s intention of keeping rates low until 2015.
Meanwhile, data from Europe continues to weaken as the ongoing debt crises takes its toll onthe real economies. Even Germany is not immune with the August IFO Business Index falling for the fourth month in a row in August to its lowest level since March 2010, driven by a fall in the expectations component. The ECB, who is already preparing a bond buying programme and revising its collateral framework to stabilise euro area debt markets, is likely also to be contemplating ways to ease monetary policy as risks to inflation start to materialise on the downside. This could be in the form of further rate cuts or non-sterilisation of bond purchases.
Markets have already priced in further stimulus from the Federal Reserve and significant bond purchases by the ECB, failure to deliver from either will disappoint.
Meanwhile, data from Europe continues to weaken as the ongoing debt crises takes its toll onthe real economies. Even Germany is not immune with the August IFO Business Index falling for the fourth month in a row in August to its lowest level since March 2010, driven by a fall in the expectations component. The ECB, who is already preparing a bond buying programme and revising its collateral framework to stabilise euro area debt markets, is likely also to be contemplating ways to ease monetary policy as risks to inflation start to materialise on the downside. This could be in the form of further rate cuts or non-sterilisation of bond purchases.
Markets have already priced in further stimulus from the Federal Reserve and significant bond purchases by the ECB, failure to deliver from either will disappoint.
