29 mar. 2012

China's Gravity-defying Economy: How Hard Will It Fall? - Knowledge@Wharton

Hard landing still a risk, both, because internal and external factorts.
Some internal factors : domestic politics (change of leader), construction and  real estate sectors.
External factors : global ocnditions, weak financial system, pressure on RMB exchange rate.
Government is now targeting a growth rate of 7.5%, versus 8+% in the past and a more recent 8.9% during th 4Q of 2011.
Below 7%  China will start to get into trouble, but the markets may start to get scare at 8% or below it.
Clearly the trend is for a slowdown in GDP growth : 8% in 2012, to 7.5% in 2013 and down to 7% in 2016.

The full article here :

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2962#.T3QtYqOvhrQ.blogger